Japan economy after the earthquake and tsunami Research Paper

Japan economy after the earthquake and tsunami - Research Paper Example The purpose of this paper is to describe the economic effects of the March 11th earthquake on Japan. The earthquake devastated the infrastructure of Japan. There are over 500,000 people homeless as a consequence of the earthquake. The overall property damage exceeds $300 billion (Huffingtonpost). The effect of having so many people homeless has destabilized the nation in social and economic terms. Despite all the humanitarian help that has come from the global community the Japanese government is finding it hard to feed and provide shelter to so many people. Due to the rising cost of petroleum and its derivative products is going more expensive than the $300 billion estimate to reconstruct Japan. A major problem that is hurting the economy of Japan is the damage that the earthquake caused to the power supply of the country. About ? of the electricity in Japan is produced by 4 nuclear reactors. The earthquake caused major damage to one of the plants. The nuclear accident in the Japane se Fukushima plant is considered the biggest nuclear accident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Due to the immediate danger that the nuclear facility pose to the population the nuclear electricity infrastructure of Japan has been offline. There is a shortage of electricity across Japan. The lack of electricity throughout the entire country has negatively impacted the industrial activity in Japan. Manufacturing companies have been forced to temporarily shut down operations. This is affecting the ability of the country to export goods. The working class of Japan is losing valuable income everyday which is hurting the well-being of Japanese families. Another problem that companies are having in Japan is supply chain issues. The transportation system in Japan is in total chaos. The short term outlook for the Japanese economy is not too bright. The OECD had to recalculate the GDP growth forecast of Japan for 2011. The OECD GPD forecast for 2011 was lowered to 0.8% from the original metr ic of 1.7% (Euronews). There are major health concerns in Japan as a consequence of the earthquake. In the short term the quake caused injuries to thousands of people. The health system of Japan has been overloaded with work due to the massive amount of people requiring medical treatment. Another issue of major concern for the people of Japan was the nuclear accident in the Fukushima plant. Radiation has been already released into the population. An early study on the situation claimed that the 5.5% of the Japanese population living within 200 square kilometers of the damaged Fukushima plant would develop cancer in the long term (Youtube). This figure implies that 400,000 people would develop cancer. The only way to prevent such a horrible health forecast is to evacuate the entire area of 7.8 million inhabitants. Japan is still in a state of crisis six weeks after the earthquake. During the last month it is estimated that the Japanese economy has lost $297.8 billion (Theworldreporte r). Even a strong economy such as Japan’s cannot sustain these types of losses in such a short period of time. There a strong concerns that the Japanese economy will enter into a recession. The global economy will be hurt if Japan goes into a recession because Japan is considered one of the 8 most powerful countries in the world. Nobody could have image that such a strong earthquake would hit Japan. The people of Japan

John Stuart Mill Essay Example for Free

John Stuart Mill Essay Moral theories try to explain what distinguishes right actions from wrong ones. The theory of utilitarianism tries to do the same by incorporating several aspects that set up a moral standard to help investigate the balance between right and wrong. John Stuart Mill, a British philosopher of the 1800’s defends the utilitarian school of thought by pointing out what it is that makes utilitarianism the standard theory for morality. According to Utilitarianism as explained by Mill in his essay â€Å"In Defense of Utilitarianism† the fundamental principle of morality is the promotion of happiness on a scale that benefits an individual and the ones around him; also to promote pleasure and to prevent pain. Several major objections are raised towards the moral theory of utilitarianism some examples can be the idea that the theory asserts too much emphasis on pursuing pleasure which makes it a doctrine worthy of swine (â€Å"Defense†). Another objection is that in everyday circumstances it is impossible for humans to make a morally just decision (â€Å"Defense†). An additional counter-argument that struck me the most was the statement that utilitarianism sets standards that are deemed too high for humanity (â€Å"Defense†). What this objection projects are the predisposed and unwarranted capabilities of the human race. According to this statement humanity is made comparable to other (lower ranking) species that lack the intrinsic values that make us humans human; like thinking faculties that are much superior to other animals or the ability to have languages or develop intricate cultural systems, just to name few. Therefore, making this objection a weak one and one that displays an inferior and subjacent view towards the principle of morality. Mill on the other hand deduces the true motives of these objections and labels these ideas as being of such nature that promote actions in accordance with one obliging to a certain duty. If that is the case then individuals can be comprised of nothing but a niche in society. He argues that ethics holds the responsibility of outlining our duties, fulfilling them is dependent only on factors that promote the larger well being of a society. Mill states such objections as misapprehensions and transcribes an important point which nonetheless reconstructs and fabricates the idea of utilitarianism; he states this affirms that the motive has nothing to do with the morality of the action, though much with the worth of the agent. † (â€Å"Defense†).

Review Caught Between The Dog And The Fireplug Politics Essay

Review Caught Between The Dog And The Fireplug Politics Essay Ashworth in discussing working with politicians stated that the most important job of a legislator is to craft bills and pass them into law. He further stated that they are so many bad bills introduced throughout the nation each year by politicians. This happens both in congress and at the state legislative level. To prevent bad bills from becoming law, the founding fathers in their wisdom drafted the constitution to ensure that before any legislators idea become law, such an idea must garner enough support from other legislators, pass both houses, before signed into law by the governor or president. The president or governor has a veto right. He can refuse to sign a bill into law. To override a veto, the two branches of congress or state legislator must gather extraordinary support. It takes two third majority votes by members of congress or state legislative body to override a governor or presidential veto. Ashworth went further to point out that because it takes a lot of support f rom other legislators to pass a bill into law, politicians in strategic positions device various means to prevent certain bills from seeing the light of the day, especially when they oppose such a bill. The various subcommittees are one of such strategic powerful legislative body. Ashworth describes how he so often gets derided by members of a legislative subcommittee who disagree with his testimony. He describes how powerless he often feels in the face of legislators who seem to have all the powers and can vote on decisions that can directly impact his life. In one instance, a legislator voted to have his salary cut, because he testified against the legislators bill. After reading Ashworths letter about politicians, I immediately started rethinking my own personal decision to study public policy, especially if I find myself occupying the same portfolio as Ashworth. But in retrospect, I retorted to myself. In every profession, there are positives and negatives. We have to view Ashworths letter critically. Ashworth lamented when he wrote that if politicians are determined to embarrass you, they may show little or no regard to facts, figures or circumstances. In response to that I will say this. Unless the bill being discussed has an overwhelming support from members on both sides of the aisle. I believe that legislators on Mr. Ashworth side of the issue will stand up to defend him, speak up for him in order to make their case. They wont seat still and observe a testimony that supports their cause lampooned and lambasted. If certain groups of legislators are accusing Mr. Ashworth of being wasteful, and they resort to intimidation and falsification o f figures to make their point, one wonders where politicians on the other side of the issue were during this testimony. In this letter, Ashworth dwelt so much on the opposition. Of course the opposition will be fiery in order to make its case. I am hopeful that politicians who stood for programs Ashworth was implementing will counter with force to ensure that such a program does not cease to exist. Ashworth never stated that his program was closed. I am sure the power of his testimony alone did not save the programs he implemented for the many years he served in public service. He did not have a vote, all he did was testify and showcase how beneficial the programs he implemented will be to the citizenry. The ultimate decision rested with the politicians who had the vote. One will logically conclude that the politicians that voted to continue to fund his program must have spoken in defense of their votes during such hearings. But he benignly mentioned such utterances in his letter. H e dwelt so much on the views of the opposition. He failed to understand that the opposing view in politics is not always there to forestall growth, but rather to prevent excess and abuse. However, it is important to acknowledge some of the issues raised in Ashworths letter. Sometimes the relationship between bureaucrats and politicians can be rocky and full of unnecessary retaliation. I was particularly irked by the actions of the legislator who resorted to reducing Ashworths salary as a payback for his testimony against his bill. I wonder why one legislator will have so much power to make a decision that is unfair to a public servant, who did not break any laws or flouted any policies. I will definitely question where the other legislators where, especially proponents of Ashworths programs when the decision to reduce his salary in the line item budget was made. If I had the opportunity to question Mr. Ashworth, I will put the following questions to him: Did he Mr. Ashworth take up the issue of his salary reduction with the appropriate authorities including key members in the senate who oversaw the reduction? I will also want to know what type of response he got back from them. 2. Explain the metaphor in the title and briefly explain how this is central to understanding how to work with the press, unpleasant people, leaders, governing boards, and bureaucracies. The Metaphor Caught between the dog and the fireplug means that in the midst of the demands and inevitable inefficiencies associated with public policymaking and program implementation, a savvy public servant can shape policy, have fun and a successful career. That metaphor can be better described in the words of the philosopher, theologian Thomas Aquinas who once said: virtues in medio stat virtue stands in the middle. A policy maker should be able to find a reasonable middle ground in dealing with the media, governing boards, leaders and unpleasant people. To be an effective policy maker, one cannot be on the extreme. One has to find balance, but firm in making the right decisions, which may sometimes be unpopular. The press Ashworth begins by stating that the media has an integral role to play in a democracy vis a vis policy making and program implementation. He further advised that it is the duty of the media to keep the public informed as to what is going on in the polity. If any government decides to keep all of its action a secret from the media, the ability of the people to control that government will cease to exist. But however, he advised that there should be a limit and timing as to what can be disseminated to the media. If the media has prior knowledge of governmental negotiation and reported such freely, such a report can hamper or even cripple a government project. An effective negotiation is one conducted behind closed door, after which the contents of such negotiation is then given to media. This will help protect the integrity of negotiation. A policy maker will be doing themselves a disservice if they choose not to inform the press of the outcome of a negotiation. It is important to unde rstand as Ashworth states, that the media has a job to fulfill, and it is the job of the policy maker to make sure that the press gets all the information they want at the right time. This is if the policy maker has the answers to the question. The policy maker should be very candid with the media. If he cannot give the answers to the questions posed, he should state thus. Ashworth advised that it makes for better relation with the press if they know that the policy maker in question is always candid. A policy maker may take the semblance of an extremist or even a dictator if he knowingly chooses to keep pertinent information that is for public consumption from the press. There has to be abalance. The information has to be given at the right time, and not withheld out rightly. The metaphor used in the title of the book is also very evident in what Ashworth calls humility. Ashworth asserts that as a policy maker, a little humility helps. For one to be an effective policy maker and program manager, one has to be open to criticism. Thus, a fair and accurate criticism from the media should not be seen as an attack, but rather as a time to rethink and re address the issues one is being criticized for. No one is perfect. Ashworth also mentions that another strategy used in courting the media is to be responsible with ones criticisms of the media. If a policy maker finds out that a story was in accurately written by a reporter, it is always prudent to approach the writer first, before his or her bosses. By so doing, the reporter will be more accurate, and even check in with the said policy maker for accuracy in the future. Unpleasant People Ashworth in his letter to his niece about unpleasant people states that in public service one does not have the luxury to state exactly how one feels in the face of difficult and sometimes abusive circumstance. As a public servant one has to always find that balance not to come across as insulting or known to talk down on people. One has to be careful not to be branded an elitist. This brings to mind the metaphorical title of the book being reviewed. Ashworth states that an acceptable behavior is one set from the top to the bottom. Thus, a policy maker who is at the helm of a governmental agency sets the standard of behavior which invariably rubs off on his subordinates. Ashworth stated that rather than attack an unreasonable person who is propagating an implausible idea, it is sometimes wise to take a step back and let the situation unravel itself. He gave a shocking example of an entrepreneur who was trying to float a university at a low level of quality and performance. At a heari ng designed to ensure that the state does not close the university, even the entrepreneurs lawyer was startled as to the level of his clients unpreparedness. The entrepreneurs lawyer knew that his client did not have a case against the government. One can resolve unreasonable circumstances in public service by allowing those circumstances to expose themselves. Leaders In dealing with those placed above you, one has to speculate or even find out what ones leaders or bosses want. It is important to bear in mind that those in key leadership positions have their own wants and desires they will like to see accomplished. Most of them represent constituencies, and they search for ways to look good and gather support and votes among their constituents. According to Ashworth, a wise policy maker will try to craft policies that leaders can use and look good among their constituents. Of course the policy in question has to be legal and can be operable within acceptable practices. It is by so doing that one can motivate these leaders to support the ideas or policy issues he or she is looking to accomplish. In a lay mans parlance it can be called scratch my back, and I scratch yours. Ashworth also discuss what he describes as subordinate leadership. Leading from the background or leading anonymously. Subordinate leadership can be used as a tool to make ones se lf appear valuable in the sight of leaders. Thus, coming up with introspective ideas that will attract universal opprobrium is always commendable. First, it will make the leader look strong, insightful and attractive. This is exactly what happened with the Texas minority integration policy. One will assume that a policy maker, who has such attractive ideas, will continue to enjoy job security if not some form of promotion, which unfortunately comes with more responsibility. Governing Boards Ashworths advice on how to deal with persons appointed to governing boards is the plain truth and is his advice is ad rem with everyday reality. Like everything else in life, it is always important to respect as well as gain ones trust before you can convince them to support your idea or policy. Building trust and respecting members of a governing board means that they will almost always return the favor. Respect they say is reciprocal. Ashworth rightly pointed out that because of the respect he had among board members, they seldom disrespected him or his staff. On occasions when one a board member stepped out of line to insult him, other members stepped in to defend him. They stepped in to defend him because he had built a reputation of respect, candor, straightforwardness and discipline. Ashworth also hinted on how to deal with board members he labeled as turkeys. These are misfits. They tend to believe that they know more than anyone else including fellow board members. These are members who alienate other members. His advice on turkeys is to be polite. Let the counseling and admonition come from fellow board members and not you the policy maker. I cant disagree any further. Dealing with bureaucracies In dealing with bureaucracy Ashworth advised that policy makers should use every tact with their wit to avoid any type of foot dragging that come with bureaucratic positions. Often times in bureaucratic positions one is confronted with preserving the status quo. Ashworth states that if the status quo results in bottle necks and unnecessary foot dragging, then the status quo has to be set aside to get your policy implemented in an orderly time and manner. The less bureaucratic an agency is, the more interesting the work place will be. 3. This books impact on your view of public administration as a career. Would you recommend the book to others? Why or why not? The book is an expose of what public life is all about. Ashworth uses practical on the job experiences to illustrate the ups and downs of working in the public sector. Some aspects of his letters were pessimistic and scary. His letters about working with politicians and difficult people were the most disturbing to me. I did honestly ponder if employment in the public sector was worth the sacrifice given what he had gone through. I was particularly shocked that at the unethical behavior of the politician who went out of his way to cut the salary of a public servant who opposed his bill. But like I stated earlier, every profession has its ups and downs. It is up to the individual to make the best out of the situation. Some of the advice offered here can go a long way to sooth the pains, calm nerves and provide solutions on how to deal with specific subject matters. One can also take consolation in the fact that one is called to provide good service. It is important to note that if we b elieve that our government is not meeting our needs, we have the obligation to go into government and help rectify the anomaly. We cannot sit on the fence and expect the problem to fix itself. Despite the hurdles and difficulties of working in public service, there is also a reward. The reward that you are providing good service, that you are helping to change someones life. It is logical to state that public service from Ashworths perspective is not for the faint hearted no matter how you look at it. I can unequivocally add that it is indeed a calling, given the meager remuneration. Yes. I will most definitely recommend this book to anyone seeking to serve in the public sector. It is always good to know firsthand what one is getting into. The book can also serve as a handbook in the face of difficult and precarious situation. Will situations similar to what Ashworth detailed in his letters arise? Yes they will definitely arise. If they do, Caught Between the Dog and the Fireplug can serve as a veritable tool to help wiggle one out of difficult situations. Citations Ashworth, K., Caught Between the Dog and the Fireplug. Georgetown University Press. (2007)

Benjamin Franklin :: History

Benjamin Franklin It is also to understand what it took for Franklin to be such a famous and respectable man. When one takes a look at the world in which he currently lives, he sees it as being normal since it is so slow in changing. When an historian looks at the present, he sees the effects of many events and many wise people. Benjamin Franklin is one of these people. His participation in so many different fields changed the world immensely. He was a noted politician as well as respected scholar. He was an important inventor and scientist. Particularly interesting is the impact on the scientific world. Benjamin Franklin was a modest man who had had many jobs in his lifetime. This may help explain his large array of inventions and new methods of working various jobs. He did everything from making cabbage-growing more efficient to making political decisions to being the first person to study and chart the Gulf Stream movement in the Atlantic Ocean. *Franklin was born in Boston, Massachusetts, on January 17, 1706. He was the fifteenth child in a family of seventeen kids. His parents, Josiah and Abiah Franklin, were hard working devout Puritan/Calvinist people. Josiah Franklin made candles for a living. Since the Franklin’s were so poor, little Benjamin couldn't afford to go to school for longer than two years. In those two years, however, Franklin learned to read which opened the door to further education for him. Since he was only a fair writer and had very poor mathematical skills, he worked to tutor himself at home. Benjamin Franklin was a determined young man. As a boy, he taught himself to be a very good writer. He also learned basic algebra and geometry, navigation, grammar, logic, and natural and physical science. He partially mastered French, German, Italian, Spanish, and Latin. He was soon to be named the best educated man in the country. When he was 12-years-old, he was apprentice to his brother in printing. Benjamin's brother founded the second newspaper in America. Many people told him that one newspaper was enough for America and that the paper would soon collapse. On the contrary, it became very popular. Occasionally, young Benjamin would write an article to be printed and slip it under the printing room's door signed as "Anonymous". The following is a direct quote from Franklin's Autobiography. It describes his writing the articles as a boy.

Temple Grandin

Gleidys Reyes ENGL 1010-307 Professor Mowry Research Essay 4/9/11 Temple Granding Topic Sentence: Temple Grandin is an autistic scientist, inventor and writer who was born to revolutionize the handling of livestock and the understanding of autism. I. Three different stages in her life A. Childhood B. College Education C. Professional career II. Difficulties with autism during childhood D. Symptoms of autism E. Her mother’s efforts to help her F. Creation of squeeze machine III. College education and exposure to farm animals G. Universities she went to H. Interest for farm animalsI. Creation of curve chute IV. Achievements throughout her career and contributions to livestock industry and to autism V. Conclusion Gleidys Reyes ENGL 1010-307 Professor Mowry Research Essay 4/9/11 Temple Grandin Since the begging of time, the humane kinds have witnessed the existence of genius minds. Albert Einstein, Charles Darwin, Galileo Galilee and many others are all examples of geniuses that w ere born to revolutionize their area of expertise. Fortunately, in today’s days these kinds of geniuses continue to exist, and among these contemporaneous geniuses there is a pecial woman disserving mentioning. Her name is Temple Grandin, an autistic scientist, inventor and writer that was born to revolutionize the handling of livestock and the understanding of autism. Since about six month old temple grandin displayed the typical symptoms of autism: a neurological disorder that affects the brains’ normal development causing lack of language, lack of sensory/motor processing, noise sensitivity, fixation on rotating objects, and sensitivity to physical touch. Since her diagnosis temple’s mother directed all her effort to improving her daughter’s life.She took the time to search for schools where the staff was capacitated to deal with her daughter special needs; she hired a special care giver to play with temple to prevent her from immerging into the autist ic world; and she enrolled her in speech therapy. Thanks to all these efforts and to her constant dedication and tutoring, temple learned to speak and read. As temple entered puberty, she was frequently found on a state of constant panic and stress triggered by her oversensitivity to sounds, to images and to touch.Looking for some release to her symptoms, grandin parted to her aunt’s cattle ranch in Arizona. In the ranch, while looking at cows entering a squeeze chute, temple realized that cattle’s anxiety went way once they entered the chute. Intrigued by this fact, she decided to enter the chute and tried it out onto herself. While she was being hugged by the mechanical devise, she found herself on a state of relaxation she had never been before.Since she was unable to tolerate touch and having found something that attained to release her symptoms, temple immediately built her own chute, which she later called ‘the squeeze machine. ’ Temple has said that the squeeze machine gave her physical comfort and helped her to connect with her mother and to feel sympathy toward others. Today, a more advance version of the squeeze machine is used to treat autistic and developmentally disable children in many centers along the United States (Grandin, Temple).When she finished high school, Grandin entered Franklin Pierce College where she graduated with honors and earned a B. A. in psychology. Then, she enrolled at Arizona State University to continue her career as a psychologist. Nevertheless, during academic years 1970-72 she worked at different livestock facilities where she began to notice certain similarities between cows and her autistic condition: cows just like her, thought in pictures and experienced moments of intense anxiety and stress. Fascinated by this iscovery, she resolved to switch her master’s to animal science. In 1975 she finished her master’s degree, which she followed by a Ph. D. in animal science from the Un iversity of Illinois in 1989, and in 1980 she opened her own company, Grandin livestock handling system incorporated. Because during her previous jobs temple saw firsthand the methods used to kill livestock and understood cattle’s fears and anxieties at slaughterhouses, she dedicated her genius to designing what she calls â€Å"humane slaughter systems. This is temple’s term to refer to livestock handling systems that reduce livestock pain, discomforts and fears along their lives in farms and meat plants as well as during their execution in slaughter houses. One of her most significant contributions to livestock has been the curve chute she designed in 1986. The chute, among other things, prevents cattle from seeing people, shadows, trucks and other factors that scare them and increase the animals stress during their last minutes. With the curve chute, therefore, cattle remain calm and die peacefully.Since the curve chute came out, it’s advantages and benefits were recognized, and quickly became the only handling system at meat processing plants in the United States and in countries such as Canada, Mexico, England, and Australia (â€Å"Grandin, Temple†). Temple success with livestock is in part accredited to her autism, which allows her to see in pictures. â€Å"My mind Works just like Google for images. I don’t think in the abstract at all, everything in my life is organized visually† (Qtd. in Vansickle).This ability enables her to connect to farm animals and visualize major problems, which she then improves in her creations. In addition, Temple believes that because animals give humans so much they should be treated with respect up until their death. Among her most weighty achievements on this matter figure: an objective scoring system to ensure humane handling of cattle and pigs at meat processing facilities, procedures to reduce animals’ sickness and death, hundreds of articles and training videos that expl ain and demonstrate proper livestock handling, and several books on the same subject.She also developed the American Meat Instituted animal welfare auditing program, which is the first program in the United States to monitor and supervise proper slaughtering processes and the total number of incorrectly stunned animals. Although grandin’s work focuses more on livestock behavior, she is also well-known for her contributions to autism. She has written many articles and lectured endlessly about her experience with autism, and based on her experience scientists have developed new treatments and procedures for autistic children.Besides, she wrote her story about her live with autism in her autobiographic books, Emergence: Labeled Autistic as well as in Thinking in Pictures and Other Reports from My Life with Autism (Vansickle). Temple Grandin besides being the most known autistic adult in the world, is one of the most influential and respected names in her field. Time Magazine acc redited this by including her among the 100 most influential people in the world. Her work has been awarded with numerous honors such as â€Å"Who's Who of American Women in 1990, Humane Award from the American Veterinary Medical Association, and Richard L.Knowlton Innovation Award from Meat Marketing and Technology Magazine† (Vansickle). Currently, Doctor Grandin spends her days teaching at Colorado State University and consulting with the livestock industry on facility designs, livestock handling, and animal welfare. Works Cited â€Å"Grandin, Temple. † Current Biografy 1994: n. pag. Biographies Plus Illustrated. . Web. 9 Apr. 2011. Vansickle, Joe. â€Å"Temple Grandin. † National Hog Farmer 15 May 2007: 28-30. Academic Rearch Premier. Web. 9 Apr. 2011.

The Twilight Saga 2: New Moon Chapter 16 PARIS

AT THAT MOMENT, MY HEAD BROKE THE SURFACE. How disorienting. I'd been sure I was sinking. The current wouldn't let up. It was slamming me against more rocks; they beat against the center of my back sharply, rhythmically, pushing the water from my lungs. It gushed out in amazing volume, absolute torrents pouring from my mouth and nose. The salt burned and my lungs burned and my throat was too full of water to catch a breath and the rocks were hurting my back. Somehow I stayed in one place, though the waves still heaved around me. I couldn't see anything but water everywhere, reaching for my face. â€Å"Breathe!† a voice, wild with anxiety, ordered, and I felt a cruel stab of pain wher I recognized the voicebecause it wasn't Edward's. I could not obey. The waterfall pouring from my mouth didn't stop long enough for me to catch a breath. The black, icy water filled my chest, burning. The rock smacked into my back again, right between my shoulder blades, and another volley of water choked its way out of my lungs. â€Å"Breathe, Bella! C'mon!† Jacob begged. Black spots bloomed across my vision, getting wider and wider, blocking out the light. The rock struck me again. The rock wasn't cold like the water; it was hot on my skin. I realized it was Jacob's hand, trying to beat the water from my lungs. The iron bar that had dragged me from the sea was also warm My head whirled, the black spots covered everything Was I dying again, then? I didn't like itthis wasn't as good as the last time. It was only dark now, nothing worth looking at here. The sound of the crashing waves faded into the black and became a quiet, even whoosh that sounded like it was coming from the inside of my ears â€Å"Bella?† Jacob asked, his voice still tense, but not as wild as before. â€Å"Bells, honey, can you hear me?† The contents of my head swished and rolled sickeningly, like they'd joined the rough water â€Å"How long has she been unconscious?† someone else asked. The voice that was not Jacob's shocked me, jarred me into a more focused awareness. I realized that I was still. There was no tug of the current on methe heaving was inside my head. The surface under me was flat and motionless. It felt grainy against my bare arms. â€Å"I don't know,† Jacob reported, still frantic. His voice was very close. Handsso warm they had to be hisbrushed wet hair from my cheeks. â€Å"A few minutes? It didn't take long to tow her to the beach.† The quiet whooshing inside my ears was not the wavesit was the air moving in and out of my lungs again. Each breath burnedthe passageways were as raw as if I'd scrubbed them out with steel wool. But I was breathing. And I was freezing. A thousand sharp, icy beads were striking my face and arms, making the cold worse. â€Å"She's breathing. She'll come around. We should get her out of the cold, though. I don't like the color she's turning† I recognized Sam's voice this time. â€Å"You think it's okay to move her?† â€Å"She didn't hurt her back or anything when she fell?† â€Å"I don't know.† They hesitated. I tried to open my eyes. It took me a minute, but then I could see the dark, purple clouds, flinging the freezing rain down at me. â€Å"Jake?† I croaked. Jacob's face blocked out the sky. â€Å"Oh!† he gasped, relief washing over his features. His eyes were wet from the rain. â€Å"Oh, Bella! Are you okay? Can you hear me? Do you hurt anywhere?† â€Å"J-Just m-my throat,† I stuttered, my lips quivering from the cold. â€Å"Let's get you out of here, then,† Jacob said. He slid his arms under me and lifted me without effortlike picking up an empty box. His chest was bare and warm; he hunched his shoulders to keep the rain off of me. My head lolled over his arm. I stared vacantly back toward the furious water, beating the sand behindhim. â€Å"You got her?† I heard Sam ask. â€Å"Yeah, I'll take it from here. Get back to the hospital. I'll join you later. Thanks, Sam.† My head was still rolling. None of his words sunk in at first. Sam didn't answer. There was no sound, and I wondered if he were already gone. The water licked and writhed up the sand after us as Jacob carried me away, like it was angry that I'd escaped. As I stared wearily, a spark of color caught my unfocused eyesa small flash of fire was dancing on the black water, far out in the bay. The image made no sense, and I wondered how conscious I really was. My head swirled with the memory of the black, churning waterof being so lost that I couldn't find up or down. So lost but somehow Jacob â€Å"How did you find me?† I rasped. â€Å"I was searching for you,† he told me. He was half-jogging through the rain, up the beach toward the road. â€Å"I followed the tire tracks to your truck, and then I heard you scream† He shuddered. â€Å"Why would you jump, Bella? Didn't you notice that it's turning into a hurricane out here? Couldn't you have waited for me?† Anger filled his tone as the relief faded. â€Å"Sorry,† I muttered. â€Å"It was stupid.† â€Å"Yeah, it was really stupid,† he agreed, drops of rain shaking free of his hair as he nodded. â€Å"Look, do you mind saving the stupid stuff for when I'm around? I won't be able to concentrate if I think you're jumping off cliffs behind my back.† â€Å"Sure,† I agreed. â€Å"No problem.† I sounded like a chain-smoker. I tried to clear my throatand then winced; the throat-clearing felt like stabbing a knife down there. â€Å"What happened today? Did you find her?† It was my turn to shudder, though I wasn't so cold here, right next to his ridiculous body heat. Jacob shook his head. He was still more running than walking as he headed up the road to his house. â€Å"No. She took off into the waterthe bloodsuckers have the advantage there. That's why I raced homeI was afraid she was going to double back swimming. You spend so much time on the beach† He trailed off, a catch in his throat. â€Å"Sam came back with you is everyone else home, too?† I hoped they weren't still out searching for her. â€Å"Yeah. Sort of.† I tried to read his expression, squinting into the hammering rain. His eyes were tight with worry or pain. The words that hadn't made sense before suddenly did. â€Å"You said hospital. Before, to Sam. Is someone hurt? Did she fight you?† My voice jumped up an octave, sounding strange with the hoarseness. â€Å"No, no. When we got back, Em was waiting with the news. It's Harry Clearwater. Harry had a heart attack this morning.† â€Å"Harry?† I shook my head, trying to absorb what he was staying. â€Å"Oh, no! Does Charlie know?† â€Å"Yeah. He's over there, too, with my dad.† â€Å"Is Harry going to be okay?† Jacob's eyes tightened again. â€Å"It doesn't look so great right now.† Abruptly, I felt really sick with guiltfelt truly horrible about the brainless cliff dive. Nobody needed to be worrying about me right now. What a stupid time to be reckless. â€Å"What can I do?† I asked. At that moment the rain stopped. I hadn't realized we were already back to Jacob's house until he walked through the door. The storm pounded against the roof. â€Å"You can stay here,† Jacob said as he dumped me on the short couch. â€Å"I mean itright here I'll get you some dry clothes.† I let my eyes adjust to the dark room while Jacob banged around in his bedroom. The cramped front room seemed so empty without Billy, almost desolate. It was strangely ominousprobably just because I knew where he was. Jacob was back in seconds. He threw a pile of gray cotton at me. â€Å"These will be huge on you, but it's the best I've got. I'll, er, step outside so you can change.† â€Å"Don't go anywhere. I'm too tired to move yet. Just stay with me.† Jacob sat on the floor next to me, his back against the couch. I wondered when he'd slept last. He looked as exhausted as I felt. He leaned his head on the cushion next to mine and yawned. â€Å"Guess I could rest for a minute† His eyes closed. I let mine slide shut, too. Poor Harry. Poor Sue. I knew Charlie was going to be beside himself. Harry was one of his best friends. Despite Jake's negative take on things, I hoped fervently that Harry would pull through. For Charlie's sake. For Sue's and Leah's and Seth's Billy's sofa was right next to the radiator, and I was warm now, despite my soaked clothes. My lungs ached in a way that pushed me toward unconsciousness rather than keeping me awake. I wondered vaguely if it was wrong to sleep or was I getting drowning mixed up with concussions ? Jacob began softly snoring, and the sound of it soothed like a lullaby. I fell asleep quickly. For the first time in a very long time, my dream was just a normal dream. Just a blurred wandering through old memoriesblinding bright visions of the Phoenix sun, my mother's face, a ramshackle tree house, a faded quilt, a wall of mirrors, a flame on the black water I forgot each of them as soon as the picture changed. The last picture was the only one that stuck in my head. It was meaninglessjust a set on a stage. A balcony at night, a painted moon hanging in the sky. I watched the girl in her nightdress lean on the railing and talk to herself. Meaningless but when I slowly struggled back to consciousness, Juliet was on my mind. Jacob was still asleep; he'd slumped down to the floor and his breathing was deep and even. The house was darker now than before, it was black outside the window. I was stiff, but warm and almost dry. The inside of my throat burned with every breath I took. I was going to have to get upat least to get a drink. But my body just wanted tc he here limp, to never move again. Instead of moving, I thought about Juliet some more. I wondered what she would have done if Romeo had left her, not because he was banished, but because he lost interests What if Rosalind had given him the time of day, and he'd changed his mind? What if, instead of marrying Juliet, he'd just disappeared? I thought I knew how Juliet would feel. She wouldn't go back to her old life, not really. She wouldn't ever have moved on, I was sure of that. Even if she'd lived until she was old and gray, every time she closed her eyes, it would have been Romeo's face she saw behind her lids. She would have accepted that, eventually. I wondered if she would have married Paris in the end, just to please her parents, to keep the peace. No, probably not, I decided. But then, the story didn't say much about Paris. He was just a stick figurea placeholder, a threat, a deadline to force her hand. What if there were more to Paris? What if Paris had been Juliet's friend? Her very best friend? What if he was the only one she could confide in about the whole devastating thing with Romeo? The one person who really understood her and made her feel halfway human again? What if he was patient and kind? What if he took care of her? What if Juliet knew she couldn't survive without him? What if he really loved her, and wanted her to be happy? And what if she loved Paris? Not like Romeo. Nothing like that, of course. But enough that she wanted him to be happy, too? Jacob's slow, deep breathing was the only sound in the roomlike a lullaby hummed to a child, like the whisper of a rocking chair, like the ticking of an old clock when you had nowhere you needed to goIt was the sound of comfort. If Romeo was really gone, never coming back, would it have mattered whether or not Juliet had taken Paris up on his offer? Maybe she should have tried to settle into the leftover scraps of life that were left behind. Maybe that would have been as close to happiness as she could get. I sighed, and then groaned when the sigh scraped my throat. I was reading too much into the story. Romeo wouldn't change his mind. That's why people still remembered his name, always twined with hers: Romeo and Juliet. That's why it was a good story. â€Å"Juliet gets dumped and ends up with Paris† would have never been a hit. I closed my eyes and drifted again, letting my mind wander away from the stupid play I didn't want to think about anymore. I thought about reality insteadabout jumping off the cliff and what a brainless mistake that had been. And not just the cliff, but the motorcycles and the whole irresponsible Evel Knievel bit. What if something bad happened to me? What would that do to Charlie? Harry's heart attack had pushed everything suddenly into perspective for me. Perspective that I didn't want to see, becauseif I admitted to the truth of itit would mean that I would have to change my ways. Could I live like that? Maybe. It wouldn't be easy; in fact, it would be downright miserable to give up my hallucinations and try to be a grown-up. But maybe I should do it. And maybe I could. If I had Jacob. I couldn't make that decision right now. It hurt too much. I'd think about something else. Images from my ill-considered afternoon stunt rolled through my head while I tried to come up with something pleasant to think about the feel of the air as I fell, the blackness of the water, the thrashing of the current Edward's face I lingered there for a long time. Jacob's warm hands, trying to beat life back into me the stinging rain flung down by the purple clouds the strange fire on the waves There was something familiar about that flash of color on top of the water. Of course it couldn't really be fire My thoughts were interrupted by the sound of a car squelching through the mud on the road outside. I heard it stop in front of the house, and doors started opening and closing. I thought about sitting up, and then decided against that idea. Billy's voice was easily identifiable, but he kept it uncharacteristically low, so that it was only a gravelly grumble. The door opened, and the light flicked on. I blinked, momentarily blind. Jake startled awake, gasping and jumping to his feet. â€Å"Sorry,† Billy grunted. â€Å"Did we wake you?† My eyes slowly focused on his face, and then, as I could read his expression, they filled with tears. â€Å"Oh, no, Billy!† I moaned. He nodded slowly, his expression hard with grief. Jake hurried to his father and took one of his hands. The pain made his face suddenly childlikeit looked odd on top of the man's body. Sam was right behind Billy, pushing his chair through the door. His normal composure was absent from his agonized face. â€Å"I'm so sorry,† I whispered. Billy nodded. â€Å"It's gonna be hard all around.† â€Å"Where's Charlie?† â€Å"Your dad is still at the hospital with Sue. There are a lot of arrangements to be made.† I swallowed hard. â€Å"I'd better get back there,† Sam mumbled, and he ducked hastily out the door. Billy pulled his hand away from Jacob, and then he rolled himself through the kitchen toward his room. Jake stared after him for a minute, then came to sit on the floor beside me again. He put his face in his hands. I rubbed his shoulder, wishing I could think of anything to say. After a long moment, Jacob caught my hand and held it to his face. â€Å"How are you feeling? Are you okay? I probably should have taken you to a doctor or something.† He sighed. â€Å"Don't worry about me,† I croaked. He twisted his head to look at me. His eyes were rimmed in red. â€Å"You don't look so good.† â€Å"I don't feel so good, either, I guess.† â€Å"I'll go get your truck and then take you homeyou probably ought to be there when Charlie gets back.† â€Å"Right.† I lay listlessly on the sofa while I waited for him. Billy was silent in the other room. I felt like a peeping torn, peering through the cracks at a private sorrow that wasn't mine. It didn't take Jake long. The roar of my truck's engine broke the silence before I expected it. He helped me up from the couch without speaking, keeping his arm around my shoulder when the cold air outside made me shiver. He took the driver's seat without asking, and then pulled me next to his side to keep his arm tight around me. I leaned my head against his chest. â€Å"How will you get home?† I asked. â€Å"I'm not going home. We still haven't caught the bloodsucker, remember?† My next shudder had nothing to do with cold. It was a quiet ride after that. The cold air had woken me up. My mind was alert, and it was working very hard and very fast. What if? What was the right thing to do? I couldn't imagine my life without Jacob nowI cringed away from the idea of even trying to imagine that. Somehow, he'd become essential to my survival. But to leave things the way they were was that cruel, as Mike had accused? I remembered wishing that Jacob were my brother. I realized now that all I really wanted was a claim on him. It didn't feel brotherly when he held me like this. It just felt nicewarm and comforting and familiar. Safe. Jacob was a safe harbor. I could stake a claim. I had that much within my power. I'd have to tell him everything, I knew that. It was the only way to be fair. I'd have to explain it right, so that he'd know I wasn't settling, that he was much too good for me. He already knew I was broken, that part wouldn't surprise him, but he'd need to know the extent of it. I'd even have to admit that I was crazyexplain about the voices I heard. He'd need to know everything before he made a decision. But, even as I recognized that necessity, I knew he would take me in spite of it all. He wouldn't even pause to think it through. I would have to commit to thiscommit as much of me as there was left, every one of the broken pieces. It was the only way to be fair to him. Would I? Could I? Would it be so wrong to try to make Jacob happy? Even if the love I felt for him was no more than a weak echo of what I was capable of, even if my heart was far away, wandering and grieving after my fickle Romeo, would it be so very wrong? Jacob stopped the truck in front of my dark house, cutting the engine so it was suddenly silent. Like so many other times, he seemed to be in tune with my thoughts now. He threw his other arm around me, crushing me against his cheat, binding me to him. Again, this felt nice. Almost like being a whole person again. I thought he would be thinking of Harry, but then he spoke, and his tone was apologetic. â€Å"Sorry. I know you don't feel exactly the way I do, Bella. I swear I don't mind. I'm just so glad you're okay that I could singand that's something no one wants to hear.† He laughed his throaty laugh in my ear. My breathing kicked up a notch, sanding the walls of my throat. Wouldn't Edward, indifferent as he might be, want me to be as happy as possible under the circumstances? Wouldn't enough friendly emotion linger for him to want that much for me? I thought he would. He wouldn't begrudge me this: giving just a small bit of love he didn't want to my friend Jacob. After all, it wasn't the same love at all. Jake pressed his warm cheek against the top of my hair. If I turned my face to the sideif I pressed my lips against his bare shoulder†¦ I knew without any doubt what would follow. It would be very easy. There would be no need for explanations tonight. But could I do it? Could I betray my absent heart to save my pathetic life? Butterflies assaulted my stomach as I thought of turning my head. And then, as clearly as if I were in immediate danger, Edward's velvet voice whispered in my ear. â€Å"Be happy,† he told me. I froze. Jacob felt me stiffen and released me automatically, reaching for the door. Wait, I wanted to say. Just a minute. But I was still locked in place, listening to the echo of Edward's voice in my head. Storm-cooled air blew through the cab of the truck. â€Å"OH!† The breath whooshed out of Jacob like someone had punched him in the gut. â€Å"Holy crap!† He slammed the door and twisted the keys in the ignition at the same moment. His hands were shaking so hard I didn't know how he managed it. â€Å"What's wrong?† He revved the engine too fast; it sputtered and faltered. â€Å"Vampire,† he spit out. The blood rushed from my head and left me dizzy. â€Å"How do you know?† â€Å"Because I can smell it. Dammit!† Jacob's eyes were wild, raking the dark street. He barely seemed aware of the tremors that were rolling through his body. â€Å"Phase or get her out of here?† he hissed at himself. He looked down at me for a split second, taking in my horror-struck eyes and white face, and then he was scanning the street again. â€Å"Right. Get you out.† The engine caught with a roar. The tires squealed as he spun the truck around, turning toward our only escape. The headlights washed across the pavement, lit the front line of the black forest, and finally glinted off a car parked across the street from my house. â€Å"Stop!† I gasped. It was a black cara car I knew. I might be the furthest thing from an autophile, but I could tell you everything about that particular car. It was a Mercedes S55 AMG. I knew the horsepower and the color of the interior. I knew the feel of the powerful engine purring through the frame. I knew the rich smell of the leather seats and the way the extra-dark tint made noon look like dusk through those windows. It was Carlisle's car. â€Å"Stop!† I cried again, louder this time, because Jacob was gunning the truck down the street. â€Å"What?!† â€Å"It's not Victoria. Stop, stop! I want to go back.† He stomped on the brake so hard I had to catch myself against the dashboard. â€Å"What?† he asked again, aghast. He stared at me with horror in his eyes. â€Å"It's Carlisle's car! It's the Cullens. I know it.† He watched dawn break across my face, and a violent tremor rocked his frame. â€Å"Hey, calm down, Jake. It's okay. No danger, see? Relax.† â€Å"Yeah, calm,† he panted, putting his head down and closing his eyes. While he concentrated on not exploding into a wolf, I stared out the back window at the black car. It was just Carlisle, I told myself. Don't expect anything more. Maybe Esme Stop right there, I told myself. Just Carlisle. That was plenty. More than I'd ever hoped to have again. â€Å"There's a vampire in your house,† Jacob hissed. â€Å"And you want to go back?† I glanced at him, ripping my unwilling eyes off the Mercedesterrified that it would disappear the second I looked away. â€Å"Of course,† I said, my voice blank with surprise at his question. Of course I wanted to go back. Jacob's face hardened while I stared at him, congealing into the bitter mask that I'd thought was gone for good. Just before he had the mask in place, I caught the spasm of betrayal that flashed in his eyes. His hands were still shaking. He looked ten years older than me. He took a deep breath. â€Å"You're sure it's not a trick?† he asked in a slow, heavy voice. â€Å"It's not a trick. It's Carlisle. Take me back!† A shudder rippled through his wide shoulders, but his eyes were flat and emotionless. â€Å"No.† â€Å"Jake, it's okay† â€Å"No. Take yourself back, Bella.† His voice was a slapI flinched as the sound of it struck me. His jaw clenched and unclenched. â€Å"Look, Bella,† he said in the same hard voice. â€Å"I can't go back. Treaty or no treaty, that's my enemy in there.† â€Å"It's not like that† â€Å"I have to tell Sam right away. This changes things. We can't be caught on their territory.† â€Å"Jake, it's not a war!† He didn't listen. He put the truck in neutral and jumped out the door, leaving it running. â€Å"Bye, Bella,† he called back over his shoulder. â€Å"I really hope you don't die.† He sprinted into the darkness, shaking so hard that his shape seemed blurred; he disappeared before I could open my mouth to call him back. Remorse pinned me against the seat for one long second. What had I just done to Jacob'? But remorse couldn't hold me very long. I slid across the seat and put the truck back in drive. My hands were shaking almost as hard as Jake's had been, and this took a minute of concentration. Then I carefully turned the truck around and drove it back to my house. It was very dark when I turned off the headlights. Charlie had left in such a hurry that he'd forgotten to leave the porch lamp on. I felt a pang of doubt, staring at the house, deep in shadow. What if it was a trick? I looked back at the black car, almost invisible in the night. No. I knew that car. Still, my hands were shaking even worse than before as I reached for the key above the door. When I grabbed the doorknob to unlock it, it twisted easily under my hand. I let the door fall open. The hallway was black. I wanted to call out a greeting, but my throat was too dry. I couldn't quite seem to catch my breath. I took a step inside and fumbled for the light switch. It was so blacklike the black water Where was that switch? Just like the black water, with the orange flame flickering impossibly on top of it. Flame that couldn't be a fire, but what then ? My fingers traced the wall, still searching, still shaking Suddenly, something Jacob had told me this afternoon echoed in my head, finally sinking in She took off into the water, he'd said. The bloodsuckers have the advantage there. That's why I raced home I was afraid she was going to double back swimming. My hand froze in its searching, my whole body froze into place, as I realized why I recognized the strange orange color on the water. Victoria's hair, blowing wild in the wind, the color of fire She'd been right there. Right there in the harbor with me and Jacob. If Sam hadn't been there, if it had been just the two of us ? I couldn't breathe or move. The light flicked on, though my frozen hand had still not found the switch. I blinked into the sudden light, and saw that someone was there, waiting for me.